By Whitney Leggett
The Winchester Sun
According to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Kentucky is well equipped for its peak of the novel coronavirus, but still, hundreds more are likely to die from the virus.
IHME is an independent global health center at the University of Washington.
The center created a database detailing COVID-19 projections, including demand for hospital services and deaths per day, in the U.S. assuming full social distancing through May 2020.
“Our model is designed to be a planning tool, and is informed by the shape that other COVID-19 outbreaks are taking, in terms of deaths, around the world and across the US,” researchers wrote. “The data being used in these forecasts come from local and national governments, hospital networks like the University of Washington, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization, and a range of other sources. The model is updated regularly as new data are available, in order to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible.”
According to the database, Kentucky has more than a month until it reaches its peak resource use, projected for May 16. At that date, the state will need about 1,574 of its available 6,210 beds, including 236 of its 448 ICU beds. Additionally, about 188 invasive ventilators will likely be needed at that time.
Kentucky is projected to reach its peak deaths per day around May 13, when we will likely have about 15 COVID-19 deaths per day, according to the database.
The database projects that by August, Kentucky will have at least 821 virus-related deaths. The projection for deaths ranges from 150 to 1,802 in Kentucky.