Kentucky is notorious for its often wildly variable weather patterns. This month has been one such example. Within one week, all 120 counties in Kentucky were at points under a flood warning this weekend, An EF-1 tornado touched down in Simpson County, and only days later, the state was blanketed with several inches of snow.
Adair County received almost five inches of rain on Feb. 15 leading to several road closures due to flooding. Feb. 15 and 16 made up almost the entire 7.8 inches of precipitation that Adair has received this month in just over a day according to Western Kentucky University’s Mesonet.
So, what causes these strange, often contrasting weather events to happen in such a short time apart?
Meteorologist Corey Houk with 99.9 The Big Dawg explained it.
“An area of low pressure moved into the Ohio Valley; Precipitation along the warm front in central Kentucky brought substantial rainfall amounts between 4-6 inches across the majority of central Kentucky. As this area of low pressure moved to the east, the warm front moved north, putting south central Kentucky in the Severe Weather Zone,” he said.
While this wasn't a significant severe weather threat, it was enough of a threat to issue a tornado watch, Houk said.
“A cold front pushed through the area on Saturday night, dropping temperatures below freezing. On Sunday morning, an intense round of snow developed behind the area of low pressure, which caused snow to accumulate between 1-2 inches. Arctic Air remained in place as another storm system was on the way. Since the arctic air was already in place, another round of accumulating snow resulted,” he said.
February’s floods were not helped by the smaller amounts of rain many parts of Kentucky (including Adair) received days before. On Tuesday the week of the flooding, Adair received over an inch of rain, and more showers on Wednesday. Rivers and bodies of water were already full when the new storm rolled in to overflow them. This contributed to many of the more viral videos seen on social media, including houses being washed away and waterfalls going flat with floodwater.
As for the tornado watch that went into effect that weekend, meteorologist Daniel Wilson with Storm Alert Center explained, “When weather ingredients are there, then those things can fall into place… When you look at history and the weather patterns, we have to remember that there is severe weather basically every month in the year… Some of the bigger storm outbreaks, I’m talking tornadoes and stuff, I’ve seen in January and February, and even in December.”
One semi-recent example of extreme weather early in the year would be from February 2012. On Feb. 29 that year, an EF2 tornado touched down just outside of Russell Springs.
As for this year, Wilson stated that the weather, “started Friday night with the rain and it went into more rainfall, then we had kind of a lull in the precipitation—probably three or four hours—and in that time we were able to build a little bit of instability to support possible tornadoes. Even though we had nothing in (Adair County) there were a few warnings issued (elsewhere). I’m not sure I would have instituted a tornado watch based on what the models were showing but there was enough instability to support that.”
Kentucky is uniquely situated where it receives weather from multiple sources—cold weather from Canada, warm weather from the Gulf. Found in the middle of the continent, Kentucky lacks a strong body of water such as an ocean as a moderating influence to keep the winter consistent during the year.
To quote Paul Cappielo of the Courier Journal, “The gigantic volume of water that makes up any ocean, sea or particularly large gulf, serves as a thermal sink. If you have a few billion cubic miles of 65-degree water sitting right next door, it does a lot to moderate potential extreme temperature shifts.”
Without that, and sitting right next to the plains in the center of North America, Kentucky is largely at the mercy of whichever weather patterns blow through. We can have blizzards (such as the 2015 and 2016 snowpocalypses) and we can have hurricane-strength winds (such as the windstorms from 2023).
What can we expect going forward? Punxsutawney Phil may have predicted eight more weeks of winter weather on Groundhog’s Day this year, but how does the four-legged meteorologist’s forecast actually hold up? After all, NOAA does only give him an accuracy rating of around 35%.
According to the meteorologists’ (and Phil’s) models, we may not be out of the woods quite yet. Wilson predicts that the last week of February and even early March could play host to more snow. Whether or not it is heavy snow or a light dusting or two is yet to be determined, though the possibility exists that more winter weather could be on its way.
And after the snow melts, Wilson says he expects this spring to have some “active” weather patterns. “I think we could see an increase in some severe weather this storm season. If we have additional rain coming in… there’s no chance of it being a drought anytime soon.”
While more extreme weather is possible, including the potential for more snowstorms, that does not mean it is time to worry. Having a plan in place, especially if you live in an area that is prone to flooding, is the best way to prepare for any type of inclement weather.
By Kenley Godby
kenley@adairvoice.com
